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What does this current situation say about the state of the American electorate? For one, it suggests that many Americans ultimately may not care about whether someone, Trump or otherwise, tries to steal an election by pressuring state and local officials to overturn results. Of course, it also wasn’t that long ago that DeSantis seemed to have all the momentum. And sixteen months ago, the Supreme Court had yet to issue the Dobbs decision, a ruling widely understood to have impacted last November’s midterms in ways that were mostly unfavorable to Republicans. Sixteen months ago, inflation was still running hot at 8.5 percent, compared with 3 percent today. Sixteen months ago, Russia had just invaded Ukraine, an event that few saw coming. Of course, a lot can change in the 16 months between now and next year’s election. “.the uncomfortable reality is that Trump may not feel the need to try to steal the next election, because he may have already won outright.” Betting markets echo the polls, and currently give Trump 2-1 odds of being the nominee over DeSantis. The polls demonstrate his electoral strength.Īt the moment, both the FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Politics averages show Trump has widened his lead over DeSantis since early April. While some may rethink their choice this time around, many won’t think twice about voting for him again. Yet, with that case now decided and the so-called “ independent state legislature” theory put to bed, some pundits still continue to speculate about how the case could “ hang over” next year’s election.īut these fears miss the forest for the trees: the uncomfortable reality is that Trump may not feel the need to try to steal the next election, because he may have already won outright.Ĭonsider first that more than 62 million Americans voted for Donald Trump in 2016, and more than 74 million did so in 2020. Harper was a “ bomb” that could “ upend” or “ transform” the 2024 election. More recently, commentators spilled ink over how the Supreme Court case Moore v. Today this mindset can be seen in continued concerns that Russia or China will hand Republicans the election in 2024. Exaggerated and discredited narratives dominated news cycles. For many on the political left, the idea that Trump cannot win lingers from the shell-shocked days in 2016 when they convinced themselves that only Russian meddling could explain Hillary Clinton’s defeat.

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